The Impact of Sudan on Neighboring Countries and the Horn of Africa

Map of Sudan and neighboring countries

Important Introductions

Sudan, with its unique geostrategic location, is a pivotal point in the dynamics of security and stability in Northeast Africa and the Horn of Africa. Historically, its internal disturbances and cross-border tribal interferences have been a major factor in destabilizing neighboring countries. The rule of Field Marshal Al-Bashir witnessed a sharp conflict of regional and international interests around Sudan, turning it into an arena for major power competition.

After Al-Bashir's fall, the shifts in power and the rise of new forces, represented by the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) parties in partnership with the Transitional Military Council (which included the Sudanese Army, General Intelligence Service, Sudanese Police, and Rapid Support Forces), affected regional relations. The current conflict has led neighboring countries to adopt varying stances; some support the Rapid Support Forces, while others support the army and official institutions, driven by conflicting security, economic, and geopolitical interests.

1. Geostrategic Importance of Sudan and its Regional Environment:

Sudan occupies an important geographical location, linking the Sahel and Sahara regions with areas north and south of the equator, and connecting the African continent with the Arab region.

This strategic location makes it a vital nexus, meaning that any internal developments within it are not confined to its borders but rather affect and interact with neighboring countries and the entire region.

The Sudanese state acts as a geopolitical hub and an amplifier of regional dynamics. Given its complex demographic makeup, which includes over 597 major and minor ethnic groups and over 100 languages, internal conflicts in Sudan are not merely local issues but are inherently intertwined regional issues.

This deep interconnectedness means that any internal disturbance in Sudan can quickly spread to its surroundings, exacerbating existing tensions or creating new cross-border security challenges.

Therefore, any initiative aimed at achieving regional stability must place Sudan at the heart of its concerns, recognizing its immense capacity to positively or negatively influence a large and vital part of the African continent.

There is an inherent weakness in the structure of the Sudanese state. Since its independence in 1956, Sudan has not enjoyed stability, witnessing successive power struggles and economic and political marginalization of all its regions without exception. Societies suffering from deep divisions, like Sudan, need a strong government, independent of societal influences, to play the role of arbiter in internal conflicts. This essential and vital role has not been achieved in Sudan; instead, tribalism and regionalism have been reinforced by the continuous actions of successive governments to appease certain communities by granting them important state positions.

This has led other communities to seek all means, including taking up arms against the state, to also gain positions and allocations, in what became known in the tragedy of Sudanese politics as the term "power and wealth sharing."

This has led to a vacuum in central authority and weak control over borders. This historical weakness of the state, combined with its sprawling, easily penetrable borders and tribal overlaps with neighboring countries, has significantly contributed to the ease of external interference and the escalation and spread of internal conflicts across borders. Consequently, the persistent governance deficit within Sudan is a chronic and systemic source of regional instability, with its impact extending beyond the specific policies or actions of any particular regime.

2. Historical Impact of Sudan on Neighboring Countries and the Horn of Africa (Pre and Post Al-Bashir):

Sudan, even before Field Marshal Al-Bashir's rule, was a pivotal force in the Horn of Africa and its neighboring countries, not only due to its size and resources but also because of its rich civilizational history, demographic intermingling, and its role as a major corridor for trade and culture, making it significantly influence and be influenced by regional dynamics.

a. Historical and Civilizational Ties:

• Ancient Kingdoms: Sudan witnessed the emergence of powerful kingdoms such as Kush and Meroë, which left civilizational imprints on the region, including the construction of pyramids, the development of irrigation systems, and influence on trade and culture in Egypt and North Africa.

• Extension of Nubian Civilization: Sudan's cultural and Nubian influence extended to Egypt, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, reflecting deep civilizational intermingling.

• Trade Routes: Sudan served as a meeting point for ancient trade routes connecting North Africa with the Sahara Desert and the Horn of Africa, facilitating the exchange of goods, cultures, and ideas between these regions.

  
  

b. Religious and Cultural Impact:

• Spread of Islam: Sudan played a role in the spread of Islam in parts of East and Central Africa, especially through trade routes and migrations.

• Arab Influences: Arab migrations to Sudan led to the spread of the Arabic language and Arab culture in parts of the country, affecting the social and cultural fabric of some neighboring countries.

  
  

c. Population Migrations and Ethnic Ties:

• Population Movement: Throughout its history, Sudan witnessed population movements and reciprocal migrations with neighboring countries, leading to ethnic and cultural intermingling among peoples.

• Impact on Demographics: These migrations affected the demographics of countries like Chad, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, where common ethnic groups exist on both sides of the borders.

  
  

d. Political and Security Impact:

• Strategic Depth: Sudan represented a strategic depth for neighboring countries, as internal developments within it often affected regional stability.

• Refuge for Opponents and Refugees: Throughout history, many opponents and refugees from neighboring countries sought refuge in Sudan, and vice versa, which had implications for bilateral relations.

• Conflicts and Rebellions: Sudan witnessed internal conflicts that affected the stability of neighboring countries, as borders were permeable, and armed groups could move across them.

• Border Issues: Border issues, particularly with Ethiopia and Eritrea, were a source of tensions and security challenges in the region.

  
  

e. Geography and Economy:

• Geographical Location: Sudan's location on the Nile River and the Red Sea made it a vital passage for trade and communication between North and East Africa and the Middle East.

• Natural Resources: Sudan's natural resources such as agricultural lands, livestock, and mineral resources impacted regional economies, especially concerning food security, minerals, and trade.

  
  

f. Direct and Indirect Intervention in Changing Regimes:

f.1. Before Al-Bashir's Rule: Sudan's foreign policy before Al-Bashir changed with the change of ruling regimes within it, as Sudan was ruled by successive and constantly competing military and civilian regimes, which affected the nature and extent of its interventions in the affairs of neighboring countries. However, generally, Sudan was an influential regional player, whose various governments used a mixture of support for opponents, alliances, and geographical and economic factors to influence political systems in its African vicinity.

f.2. Support for Eritrean Liberation Movements: Although relations between Sudan and Eritrea witnessed fluctuations after Eritrea's independence, the role Sudan played during Jaafar Nimeiri's era in supporting Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia remains a prominent point. This support included:

• Weapons and Ammunition: Sudan provided Eritrean rebel movements with the necessary weapons and ammunition to confront the Ethiopian army.

• Financial Support: Sudan financially aided Eritrean movements to fund their operations and activities.

• Training and Shelter: Sudanese territories provided Eritrean movements with a safe haven to train their fighters and establish rear bases. Sudan also hosted large numbers of Eritrean refugees fleeing the conflict.

• Political and Diplomatic Support: Sudan championed the cause of Eritrea's independence in regional and international forums, legitimizing their struggle and seeking to rally international support for them.

• Facilitation of Movement: The Sudanese-Eritrean borders were open for the passage of fighters and supplies, making it easier for Eritrean movements to launch their attacks and return to their bases in Sudan.

• Logistical Support: Sudanese hospitals opened their doors to treat wounded Eritrean liberation fighters, and solidarity weeks were organized in Sudan to support the Eritrean cause.

  
  

f.3. After Al-Bashir:

f.3.1. Chad: Sudan played an important role in Idriss Déby's rise to power in Chad in 1990. After Idriss Déby's failed military coup attempt against President Hissène Habré's regime in Chad in 1989, he traveled to Sudan seeking assistance. Sudan provided financial, logistical, and military support to Idriss Déby and the Patriotic Salvation Movement he led, which enabled Déby in December 1990 to overthrow Hissène Habré's regime and assume power in Chad, thanks to the support he received from Sudan.

f.3.2. Eritrea: Sudanese support for Eritrean liberation movements continued and did not stop with Field Marshal Al-Bashir's rise to power in Sudan in 1989. This continued support was a key factor in enabling Eritrean liberation movements to continue their struggle until Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1991, and Isaias Afwerki's rise to power as the first president of independent Eritrea, where he remains president to this day.

f.3.3. Ethiopia: Just as Sudan supported Eritrean liberation movements to fight Mengistu's regime in Ethiopia, it also supported the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) led by Meles Zenawi. Sudan's support was crucial in enabling it to overthrow Mengistu's regime and come to power in 1991. This support included military, logistical, and political aspects.

The main reason for Sudan's support for Meles Zenawi was the communist Mengistu regime's support in Ethiopia for the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), led by the late John Garang, which was fighting the Sudanese government at the time. Consequently, the new Sudanese government, headed by Al-Bashir, found in Meles Zenawi's movement a ready ally against their common enemy.

• Assistance in Overthrowing Mengistu: The revolutionary army that overthrew Mengistu's regime entered Addis Ababa with Sudan's support, indicating logistical and military assistance provided by Sudan to the Ethiopian rebels.

  
  

f.3.4. Libya: Sudan played an important role in the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in Libya in 2011. Relations between Sudan and Libya had been marked by tension and hostility for a long time prior to that, as Sudan accused Gaddafi of supporting rebels in Darfur and South Sudan. Sudan's role in the overthrow of the late Colonel Muammar Gaddafi was as follows:

• Military and Logistical Support: Sudan provided military support to the Libyan revolutionaries, including weapons and ammunition. Khartoum at the time affirmed that the armed Libyan opposition forces that entered Tripoli were 100% Sudanese-armed.

• Settling Old Scores: Sudan considered Gaddafi's overthrow an opportunity to settle old scores with him, as Al-Bashir accused Gaddafi's regime of harming Sudan more than colonialism did, due to Gaddafi's support for armed movements in Darfur and the SPLM in South Sudan.

• Intelligence Assistance: Sudan provided intelligence support to the armed Libyan opposition, in cooperation with NATO countries.

  
  

3. The Impact of South Sudan's Secession on the Unity of the Ethiopian State and the Horn of Africa:

The secession of South Sudan in 2011, which resulted from the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005, set a dangerous precedent in the African continent. It was the first application of the principle of self-determination to a cultural minority within an independent state. This event implicitly challenged the African Charter, which stipulates the necessity of preserving colonial-inherited borders to ensure the stability of states.

This secession created what can be described as a "domino effect" and an erosion of the concept of border integrity. Once this principle was applied in South Sudan, the door was opened for many revisions in Sudan's neighboring countries and other African states. Ethiopia is the most vulnerable to the impact of South Sudan's secession, as its 1994 constitution recognizes the right of each of its ethnic groups to request self-determination. Groups like the Oromo Liberation Front and the Somalis in Ogaden, which have historical enmities against the Ethiopian state, could be inspired by the precedent of South Sudan's secession to demand autonomy or secession. This development has caused deep concern among regional leaders, with former Ethiopian President Meles Zenawi repeatedly warning that South Sudan's secession would ignite wars in Africa.

Thus, South Sudan's secession does not merely represent a solution to one internal conflict but poses a fundamental challenge to the principle of unchangeable borders upon which African states were founded after colonialism, threatening to unleash new waves of secessionist demands and inter-state tensions, and transforming local issues into wide-ranging regional security threats.

4. Internal Disturbances, Tribal Interferences, and Unsecured Borders:

4.1. Sprawling Borders: Since Sudan's independence in 1956, it has suffered from successive political and social disturbances and crises, power struggles, and economic and political marginalization of its regions, which has directly and indirectly affected neighboring countries. The sprawling and insufficiently guarded borders with Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea, and before the secession of South Sudan, countries like Kenya, Uganda, and and the Democratic Republic of Congo, have turned Sudan into an arena for conflict. This situation highlights the dual nature of border areas: they are not just political lines, but access points between Sudan and its neighbors where tribal loyalties often transcend national affiliations. This reality has made these areas both sources and recipients of instability, creating a vicious cycle of conflicts that have been raging for years, without being confined to a specific ruling period in the Sudanese state or Sudan's neighboring countries.

4.2. Competition over Resources: Chadian opposition groups moved with their livestock inside Darfur, leading to crop destruction and competition over natural resources, especially water. These conflicts led to reciprocal retaliatory acts of looting, such as theft and the burning of fields and pastures. This highlights that underlying resource pressures, exacerbated by specific geographical features, are continuous drivers of cross-border conflicts.

The weakening of the traditional native administration system in Sudan, which used to play a positive role in peacefully resolving disputes between tribes, exacerbated the situation. After being weakened and abolished by President Jaafar Nimeiri's regime, it was replaced by other entities, removing an important barrier against the escalation of local disputes into broader conflicts.

4.3. Al-Fashqa: Historical Border Disputes: Border disputes, such as the conflict over the fertile Al-Fashqa region with Ethiopia, have deep historical roots predating Al-Bashir's era. Al-Fashqa holds immense geo-economic importance due to its numerous rivers and fertile agricultural lands, totaling about 600,000 feddans. These advantages made it a coveted area for Ethiopian farmers who habitually settled and cultivated its lands under the protection and support of Ethiopian militias known as "Al-Shafta."

These disputes show that resource-rich border areas, like Al-Fashqa, are permanent flashpoints. Regardless of political ideologies or tribal affiliations, underlying resource pressures, exacerbated by specific geographical features, remain a continuous driver of cross-border tensions. This means that even with political settlements, resource management and environmental factors will continue to pose critical challenges to the stability of Sudan and its neighboring countries.

5. Sudan Under Field Marshal Al-Bashir: Conflicting Interests and Regional Interventions

The rule of President Omar Al-Bashir (1989-2019) witnessed a transformation in Sudan's regional and international relations, as it became a focus of attention for many regional and international parties, with their interests conflicting significantly, especially after years of international and American sanctions.

Despite years of international isolation, Sudan under Al-Bashir remained an important country for regional and international powers. Its strategic location (at the confluence of the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa, and the Sahel) and its rich natural resources made it undeniably valuable, even under US and UN sanctions. This dynamic created a complex and contradictory network of alliances and rivalries that often undermined Sudan's internal stability and sovereignty.

Turkey: Turkey sought to leverage its relations with Al-Bashir to gain a foothold on Suakin Island in northeastern Sudan. In 2017, Turkey signed a $650 million deal to develop the port and build a naval pier for military and civilian purposes, raising concerns in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt about a Turkish presence in the Red Sea.

Saudi Arabia: Relations between Saudi Arabia and Sudan under Al-Bashir were largely cool and tense due to Sudan's rapprochement with Iran and its stance on the Gulf War. This cool relationship transformed into a strong one after Sudan's participation in "Operation Decisive Storm" in 2015. Sudanese-Saudi relations went through different stages, including:

• Period of Coldness and Tension:

  
  

  • Sudanese-Iranian Rapprochement: In the early years of Al-Bashir's rule, Sudan was closer to Iran, especially in the 1990s, which raised concerns in Saudi Arabia and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

  • Accusations of Supporting Terrorism: Sudan under Al-Bashir was listed as a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, which affected its international and regional relations, including with Saudi Arabia.

    
    

• Rapprochement and Cooperation:

  
  

  • Participation in Operation Decisive Storm: The most prominent shift in relations was Sudan's decision to participate with ground forces in the Saudi-led Arab coalition in the Yemen war (Operation Decisive Storm). This decision resulted from a change in Sudan's political priorities and its desire to improve its relations with the GCC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia.

  • Disengagement from Iran: In the context of this rapprochement, Sudan announced the severance of its diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016, which Saudi Arabia considered a positive step.

  • Economic Benefit: Sudan sought to benefit from relations with Saudi Arabia and GCC countries to improve its economic situation. This period witnessed high-level reciprocal visits and the signing of economic cooperation agreements.

  • Saudi Support for Sudan: Saudi Arabia provided financial and economic support to Sudan on several occasions, including deposits in the Central Bank of Sudan, to help it cope with economic crises.

  • Joint Military Maneuvers: Military relations witnessed significant development, with joint aerial maneuvers conducted between the two countries, reflecting a new level of strategic cooperation.

    
    

United Arab Emirates (UAE): Sudanese-Emirati relations under Al-Bashir transformed from cool to a strategic partnership, driven by common economic interests. The UAE played a pivotal role in alleviating the economic burden of the American blockade on Sudan by continuing investments, trade, and financial exchange between Sudan and the UAE.

• Cool Beginnings: In the early period of Al-Bashir's rule, there was some coolness in relations between Sudan and GCC countries in general, due to Sudan's rapprochement with Iran at the time.

• Financial Aid: The UAE provided billions of dollars in financial aid packages to Sudan throughout Al-Bashir's rule to address economic and humanitarian crises.

• Investments in Multiple Sectors: Emirati investors entered vital sectors in Sudan such as air transport, oil, mining, manufacturing, and telecommunications.

• Development Projects: Emirati funding focused on projects with a comprehensive impact, such as dam, electricity, and infrastructure projects.

• Port Sudan: The UAE sought to obtain a concession to manage and operate Port Sudan in the late Al-Bashir era, but this was unsuccessful due to a media campaign led by the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) parties during their prominence in leading the December 2018 revolution, which was supported and sponsored by Hemedti and Salah Gosh.

• Support for Rapid Support Forces (RSF): The UAE provided support to the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, including arms deliveries, even in the late Al-Bashir era, and this cooperation continued after his overthrow. Even after the RSF rebellion, a UN panel accused the UAE of supplying the rebellious RSF with weapons and equipment via Chad, the Central African Republic, and Libya.

  
  

Qatar: Sudanese-Qatari relations during Al-Bashir's era were characterized by growth and close cooperation. Qatar played an important role in supporting peace in Darfur and engaging in economic investments in Sudan. This cooperation continued even during the Gulf crisis, with Sudan maintaining a neutral stance due to its special relations with the Arab Gulf states in general.

• Darfur: Qatar played a pivotal role in peace efforts in the Darfur region, hosting intensive negotiations between the Sudanese government and armed movements. These efforts culminated in the signing of the "Doha Document for Peace in Darfur" in July 2011.

• Funding and Reconstruction: Qatar was the only country that funded development projects in the region after the signing of the document, fulfilling its pledges during the donors' conference hosted in Doha in 2013 for the reconstruction of Darfur.

• Growth in Investments: Qatar became one of the most prominent investors in Sudan after Saudi Arabia and the UAE during Al-Bashir's era, with Qatari investments estimated at about $3.8 billion. Qatari investments focused on the agricultural, banking, and mining sectors.

• Rapprochement Amidst Crises: During a period of Sudanese relations marked by tension with some regional and Western countries, Sudan found a supportive ally in Qatar.

• Reciprocal Visits: Relations witnessed reciprocal visits at the highest levels between the leaders of the two countries, reflecting the eagerness of both sides to strengthen cooperation.

• Economic Assistance: Qatar provided significant financial assistance to Sudan in 2015 to overcome the economic crisis that hit the world in 2008, which severely affected Sudan in 2015.

• Pressure and Maintaining Relations: Despite pressure on the Sudanese government from some blockading countries to cut ties with Qatar, Khartoum insisted on a neutral stance, thanks to the excellent bilateral relations with Qatar over two decades, and the belief that the tense relations between the Gulf states would eventually improve among the Gulf brethren.

  
  

Egypt: Egyptian-Sudanese relations during Al-Bashir's era were complex and multifaceted, beginning with a period of severe tension and mutual accusations due to political differences and the Addis Ababa incident, in addition to the deeply rooted Halayeb issue. However, the last years of Al-Bashir's rule witnessed a significant shift towards rapprochement and cooperation, especially after political changes in Egypt and the emergence of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) file as a common strategic issue uniting the two countries.

• Differing Political Orientations: In the early years of Al-Bashir's rule, Sudan witnessed a rapprochement with the Islamist current, specifically with the National Islamic Front led by Hassan Al-Turabi, which raised concerns in Egypt, which was experiencing a conflict with extremist Islamist groups. This rapprochement led to tension in relations between Cairo and Khartoum.

• Attempted Assassination of Mubarak in Addis Ababa 1995: Egypt accused Sudan of involvement in the attempted assassination of the late Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Addis Ababa. This incident led to a significant deterioration in relations, the imposition of international sanctions on Sudan, and escalating animosity between the two countries.

• Halayeb and Shalateen Issue: The disputed Halayeb Triangle region, on the border between the two countries, remained a source of constant tension. Periodically, Khartoum renewed its claim of sovereignty over the area and criticized its Egyptian administration, leading to diplomatic friction.

• Mutual Accusations: The two countries exchanged accusations of supporting opposition in each other. Egypt accused Sudan of harboring extremist groups, while Sudan accused Egypt of supporting the Sudanese opposition.

• Overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood Rule in Egypt: After the overthrow of the late President Mohamed Morsi in Egypt, the dynamics of relations changed. The Sisi regime was keen to improve relations with Sudan to ensure that Sudan would not support the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt after the coup against their rule, which lasted for little over a year.

• Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) File: The issue of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam became a key factor in bringing the views of Egypt and Sudan closer. Both countries are affected by the dam's impact on their share of Nile water. In March 2015, Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia signed the Declaration of Principles on the GERD in Khartoum in the presence of Presidents Sisi, Al-Bashir, and Desalegn.

• Security and Military Cooperation: The latter period of Al-Bashir's rule witnessed strengthened security and military cooperation between the two countries, including joint military maneuvers.

• Economic Cooperation: Egypt and Sudan sought to enhance economic and trade cooperation, and many agreements were signed in various fields, but none of them were fully realized.

  
  

Russia: The relationship between Sudan and Russia during Al-Bashir's era was moving towards deepening strategic cooperation, especially in military and economic fields, driven by mutual interests in countering Western influence and international sanctions. The most prominent features of these relations are:

• Naval Base Agreement: This was the most prominent point in relations. In 2017, an agreement was signed between Sudan and Russia to establish a Russian technical logistical support point (naval base) in Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Its purpose was to serve Russian naval vessels, and the agreement extends for 25 years. Although its implementation was hampered after Al-Bashir's fall, it was an indicator of the depth of the strategic relationship between Sudan and Russia, and a bargaining chip Sudan uses against the United States, Gulf countries, and Egypt, which has complicated relations between these countries and Sudan, and continues to do so.

• Arms Supply and Logistical Support: Russia is considered the main supplier of arms to the Sudanese army, especially amid tense relations with the United States and Western countries.

• High-Level Visits: Al-Bashir made important visits to Russia, most notably in November 2017, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. During this visit, Al-Bashir asked Putin to protect his country from "hostile American actions," which Al-Bashir described as the reason behind "Sudan's continuous problems." Russia is considered an important country for Sudan as a permanent member of the Security Council and a supporter of Sudan against the United States and Western countries.

• Mineral Exploration: Russian companies entered the mineral exploration market in Sudan, and Russia seeks to secure its gold reserves through Sudan.

• Signing Agreements: Agreements were signed in various fields, including an oil refining agreement in November 2018.

• Nuclear Power Project: Sudan signed an agreement with Russia in 2017 to build a nuclear power plant to supply Sudan with electricity.

  
  

• Motives Behind Sudanese-Russian Rapprochement:

  
  

  • For Sudan: It was for political, military, and economic cooperation.

  • For Russia: It was to strengthen its geopolitical influence in Africa and the strategic Red Sea region through Sudan's role and its impact on its African surroundings, especially the Horn of Africa countries.

    
    

6. Sudan's Role in Providing Weapons to Palestinian Resistance Movements:

Historically, Sudan played an important role in supporting the Palestinian resistance, whether through political, financial, or arms support. This role had consequences for Sudan, as it was subjected to international sanctions and Israeli targeting.

• 1948 War: Sudanese forces participated in the 1948 war, indicating Sudan's early commitment to the Palestinian cause.

• Cooperation with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO): Over the decades, Sudan hosted many Palestinian leaders and fighters, providing them with political, financial, and logistical support. Khartoum was a center for rehabilitating and training Palestinian resistance elements.

• Arms Corridor: Sudan is considered an important "corridor" for providing weapons to the Palestinian resistance, especially the Gaza Strip, via sea and land routes. This role emerged after the 1967 war.

• Support for Palestinian Resistance: Under Al-Bashir, Sudan was considered one of the most prominent countries supporting various Palestinian resistance organizations, most notably Hamas.

• Arms Manufacturing: Sudan was not merely an arms corridor; it played a role in manufacturing some of the weapons used by the Palestinian resistance, especially long-range rockets, and even helped transfer manufacturing technology into the Gaza Strip.

• Israeli Targeting of Sudanese Factories: As a result of this support, arms factories and warehouses in Sudan were subjected to Israeli airstrikes, the most famous of which was the raid on the Al-Yarmouk ammunition factory in Khartoum in 2012, in which Israel accused Sudan of manufacturing weapons and smuggling them to Gaza. However, Sudan rectified its air defense shortcomings and purchased modern air defense systems from Russia and China, forcing Israel to halt its attacks on Sudanese military factories.

• International Isolation: Sudan's support for the Palestinian resistance was one of the reasons that placed Sudan on the list of state sponsors of terrorism by the United States.

  
  

7. Power Shifts in Sudan and their Regional Impact After Al-Bashir's Fall:

After the overthrow of Field Marshal Al-Bashir on April 11, 2019, Sudan entered a complex transitional phase, which held hopes for democratic change but soon faced deep internal and external challenges. Al-Bashir's fall raised hopes that Sudan could provide a pioneering model for managing transitional phases in Africa, thereby enhancing its regional standing and contributing positively to stability. However, the chaos and ongoing conflict in post-Al-Bashir Sudan pose a serious threat to regional stability. There are significant concerns that Sudan will lose control over its vast borders, transforming it into a "backyard for chaos and outlawed armed groups," which will negatively reflect on regional and international security and peace.

Sudan's Regional Relations During the Forces of Freedom and Change Period (The Game of Regional Axes):

The transitional government sought to redirect Sudan's foreign policy towards independence and common interests, moving away from regional axes. However, this ambition faced significant challenges, evident in the contradiction between the "revolutionary" anti-axes discourse and the practical reality of engaging in entrenched regional alliances.

The continued participation of the Rapid Support Forces in the Yemen war, in addition to the generous financial support promised by the UAE and Saudi Arabia (3 billion dollars in 2019), exerted significant pressure on the transitional authority, pushing it towards aligning with the Saudi-Emirati axis, especially after their failure to achieve breakthroughs with Western countries and the United States in supporting the transitional government.

This indicates that internal power dynamics (especially the growing economic and military power of the Rapid Support Forces and their prior foreign relations), coupled with Sudan's desperate economic situation (requiring urgent financial aid), quickly overshadowed the non-alignment rhetoric. This situation means that the transitional period was susceptible to external influences, undermining its declared democratic goals and deepening Sudan's involvement in regional rivalries. This is in addition to the weak experience in governance and administration that plagued the influential parties in the transitional government, namely the Umma Party, the Sudanese Congress Party, the Democratic Unionist Party, and the Ba'ath Party.

This rapprochement angered parties and organizations within the Forces of Freedom and Change, who considered it a violation of the constitutional document and accused (the group of four parties) of hijacking decision-making centers. Their warnings concluded that "the game of axes" could impede democratic transition in Sudan, as these axes have their own agendas that may be at the expense of Sudan and its interests.

Rise of Al-Burhan and Hemedti: After Al-Bashir's fall, both Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti" played pivotal roles in shaping Sudan's political landscape and its regional relations.

Hemedti's Rise and Economic Power:

• Control of Gold: Hemedti's rise was closely linked to the RSF's control over gold mines in Sudan, especially after the discovery of gold in Jebel Amer in Darfur in 2012. In 2017, after tribal leader Sheikh Musa Hilal objected to Hemedti's expansion in Darfur and his de facto control over gold mines, the RSF, by Hemedti's order, arrested him and refused to transfer him to court for over three years, seizing the most profitable gold mines, making him the largest gold trader in Africa.

• Control of Borders: Through his control of the borders with Chad and Libya, particularly concerning the issue of combating illegal immigration, the commander of the Rapid Support Forces gained dominance and influence within Sudan and among neighboring countries.

• Regional Military Participation: The Rapid Support Forces played a significant role in regional conflicts, participating in the Saudi-led coalition in the Yemen war and providing units to assist in guarding the Saudi border. Hemedti also deployed a brigade to Libya to fight alongside Khalifa Haftar's forces.

• External Alliances: Hemedti established strong relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which strengthened his influence within Sudan.

• Political Discourse: Hemedti presented himself as a representative of the historically marginalized western Sudan, in an attempt to gain wider support from Darfuri tribes against other Sudanese tribes.

  
  

Al-Bashir's, and subsequently Al-Burhan's, allowance for Hemedti to expand in the gold trade, the issue of combating illegal immigration, and direct coordination and communication with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the Operation Decisive Storm file, at the expense of Sudanese state institutions concerned with these files, along with allowing Hemedti to de facto control many sensitive files, caused a significant erosion in the state's monopoly on power and foreign relations, making Sudan more vulnerable to external manipulation.

8. Comprehensive Regional Repercussions of the Current Sudanese War:

The ongoing war in Sudan casts a heavy shadow over the entire region, threatening widespread security, economic, and humanitarian repercussions.

8.1. Security Repercussions:

• Risk of Conflict Spread: The ongoing conflict in Sudan poses a significant risk of spreading to fragile neighboring countries, further destabilizing the entire Sahel and Horn of Africa region.

• Resurgence of Extremist Groups: The security vacuum and collapse of state authority in Sudan create a fertile environment for the resurgence and expansion of terrorist groups and armed movements beyond state control. Sudan could become a "safe haven" and "breeding ground" for these extremist elements, threatening regional and international security.

• Rise of Organized Crime: The weak state control and prevailing chaos lead to a sharp increase in organized crime activities, including arms smuggling, human trafficking, and drug trafficking across easily penetrable borders.

• Weak Border Security: The central government's inability to effectively control its vast borders allows for the free movement of armed groups, weapons, and illicit goods, exacerbating existing regional conflicts and creating new security challenges for neighboring countries and the region.

• Security Concerns Related to Refugees: Large numbers of displaced persons and refugees in neighboring countries can become vulnerable to recruitment by extremist groups.

  
  

8.2. Economic Repercussions:

• Threat to Regional Trade and Supply Chains: Sudan is an important source of many products such as gold, gum arabic, sesame, livestock, oil, and others. The war severely disrupts supply chains and threatens these vital exports, creating economic problems for surrounding countries and the region.

• Food Dependence: Countries like Egypt, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, Chad, Eritrea, and Ethiopia heavily rely on Sudan for essential food products and goods for their markets.

• Gold and Gum Arabic: Sudanese gold exports have ceased, which may affect regional gold markets. Sudan's monopoly of 80% of global gum arabic production will globally affect many industries that depend on it.

  
  

8.3. Disruption of Ports and Airspace:

• Port Sudan: It is Sudan's main port (90% of its foreign trade) and a vital sea gateway for landlocked neighboring countries. Its disruption leads to a severe shortage of essential goods and an economic crisis for Sudan's neighbors.

• Airspace: Sudanese airspace is one of the largest flight zones in Africa. The conflict forces airlines to seek longer and more expensive alternative routes or suspend flights.

• Rising Commodity Prices and Food Insecurity: Trade disruptions lead to significant increases in basic commodity prices, exacerbating economic difficulties and threatening food security in a region already suffering from a severe humanitarian crisis.

• Stoppage of Investments and Joint Projects: Foreign investments from China, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, and Qatar are threatened, which could lead to the withdrawal of billions of dollars in direct investments, resulting in significant economic losses.

• Deterioration of Credit Ratings: The presence of armed conflict on the borders increases the perceived risks for investors and threatens to downgrade the credit ratings of neighboring countries, making it difficult for them to secure development loans from international institutions and threatening investment flight.

• Impact on the Oil Sector: The conflict directly affects oil production in Sudan and South Sudan, threatening their main sources of income and potentially leading to an economic collapse in South Sudan, which is entirely dependent on oil exports through Sudan.

  
  

8.4. Humanitarian and Social Repercussions:

• Massive Refugee Crisis: The conflict has resulted in a horrific humanitarian crisis, with over 8.5 million internally displaced persons and over 1.5 million refugees fleeing across borders to neighboring and sister countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Chad, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, and Eritrea.

• Funding Shortages: Humanitarian response plans face severe funding shortages, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the region.

• Social Tensions in Host Countries: The large number of refugees leads to social tensions, especially given resource scarcity and rising living costs, which could fuel hate speech and incitement against their presence.

• Irregular Migration and Abuses: Restrictions on entry have led to the transformation of regular displacement into irregular movements, with refugees taking more dangerous routes where they are exposed to horrific abuses including assault, detention, and forced deportation.

  
  

9. Conclusion

The comprehensive analysis of Sudan's impact on its neighboring countries and the Horn of Africa demonstrates that its unique geostrategic location and turbulent history have consistently made it a pivotal point in the region's dynamics. The continuous internal disturbances, exacerbated by the weak state structure and cross-border tribal interferences, have led to widespread security, economic, and humanitarian repercussions for neighboring countries.

During Field Marshal Al-Bashir's rule, Sudan transformed into an arena for conflicting regional and international interests, with powers such as Turkey, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Russia seeking to entrench their influence, driven by economic and geopolitical interests. This external competition, alongside existing border disputes, deepened its internal instability.

After Al-Bashir's fall, the transitional phase revealed complexities where the ambitions of the Forces of Freedom and Change towards independence led to a conflict with entrenched regional interests. The rise of figures like Hemedti and Al-Burhan, each with their own regional support, further fragmented central authority, making Sudan more susceptible to becoming a proxy battleground.

The war launched by the Rapid Support Forces against the Sudanese Army and its people after their failed coup on April 15, 2023, revealed entrenched dynamics due to the stances of neighboring countries, whether supporting the rebel Hemedti from countries (UAE, Ethiopia, Chad, Kenya, and South Sudan) or the Sudanese Army by (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Eritrea, and Djibouti). This divergence in regional agendas not only prolongs the conflict but also makes it more complex.

The comprehensive repercussions of the current war, from the massive refugee crisis and the threat to food security to the disruption of regional trade and the decline in credit ratings, confirm that Sudan's stability is not merely an internal issue, but a fundamental pillar of security and prosperity in a globally vital region. The absence of a strong and stable central state in Sudan will keep the region vulnerable to chaos, the spread of terrorism, and organized crime, requiring coordinated international and regional efforts that transcend narrow interests.